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 | | Long-Term Secrets to Short-Term Trading by Larry Williams ISBN-10: 9780471297222 ISBN-10: 0-471-29722-4 ISBN-13: 9780471297222 ISBN-13: 978-0-471-29722-2 Hardcover 1999-03-11 Wiley Find Lowest Price |
Editorials | ||
Product Description Sharing his years of experience as a seasoned and successful trader, Williams offers his market wisdom on a wide range of topics, from chaos and speculation to volatility breakouts and profit patterns. With his expert guidance, you'll learn about such fundamentals as how the market moves, what are the three most dominant cycles, when to exit a trade, and how to hold on to winners until the end of your chosen time frame. Along with in-depth analysis of the most effective short-term trading strategies and details on the best theory and implementation of money management, Long-Term Secrets to Short-Term Trading features Williams's winning technical indicators, as well as his thoughts on a broad range of topics. Here is a sampling: * "A short-term trader has one objective; to catch the current trend of the market. That's it. That's all you should try to do!" * "The shorter your time frame of trading the less money you'll make." * "You will never make big money until you learn to hold on to your winners, and the longer you hold the more potential you have for profiteering. . . . It takes time to make money regardless of the activity." * "Wealth is not amassed with just good market calls. It also requires correct money management." * "I think you need to fear the market and fear yourself. . . . Without fear there is no respect, if you do not respect the markets and fear yourself you will become one more dead body on the long trail of commodity market casualties scattered across the land." Filled with invaluable insight, precise rules and formulas, and helpful advice from one of today's most respected market players, this comprehensive and practical resource will serve as the basis for, if not indeed become, your short-term trading "gospel." | ||
Reviews | ||
Worth the price but you must do a lot of your own work. There are some good ideas here but almost all of the back-tested systems are too curve-fitted using TDW (Trading Day of the Week -- e.g. never buy on a Thursday) and inter-market relationships (e.g. buy stocks only when bonds are going up). I made my own system using only one of Williams' basic ideas, then parameterized it to use about 6 parms (e.g. stop value, distance from open, etc.) and back-tested it using about 15 years' data with all possible parm combinations. With the best parm set this system gained about 100% per year, figuring percentage gains the way Williams does. It had rather low drawdown. Then I modified it as follows. I selected the parm set that did the best for the first year, then used that parm set for the 2nd year and recorded those results. Then I ran all parm sets for the first 2 years, picked the best parm set and used it for the 3rd year. And so on. These results then, are all from testing on out-of-sample data. Results over the same period (but only 14 years as year 1 results are not out-of-sample) were diminished by about half. But they are far more realistic than results obtained from 100% back-testing as Williams does. I am writing this in the middle of June, 2008, using the best parm set as of the end of 2007. The system is up about 44% since the end of 2007, which is better than the long-term average. I highly recommend this form of system development, which Williams does not use in this book. It takes a lot of work to do it right, but the results are worth it -- if you can stick to the rules you develop. Unfortunately, this will be even harder to do than developing the rules will be. Good luck. | ||
Great at first, then a flop When I first encountered this book at the library I thought it was fantastic. It utilized methods of getting the odds on your side and used money management to make millions! Well, once I tried his mostly badly explained techniques using Tradestation 2000i on S&P500 and Bond data from Norgate the results were not so flash. He also is a blatant lier. He mentions that each test in his book uses a $50 commission. Well they don't. Only very few of them do, as you can see from the System Writer printouts. As soon as you add commission, the hundreds of trades turn a super winning system into a dreadful loser. Its a pity that this book doesn't deliver what it seems to but it is different and quite enjoyable to read; although you need to take notes as you go along! I did learn one good thing. Find a system that offers you the edge, consistently, and use money management to make you rich. I'm still going through the book (few weeks now) trying out some of his methods on different data, but the techniques don't hold up so well in real life. | ||
Full of Top notch Tradable ideas. Many of the ideas in this book validated Larry Williams' previous market concepts in its totality thus proved that they do indeed have strong merits and he still has conviction in what he originally expounded on. The priciples surrounding concept known as 'Market structure' is basis for a lot of trading courses out there costing anywhere between a few hundred dollars to ten thousand dollars. Although I agree with Chuck Lebeau who stated in his book that Volatility Breakout system simply deteriorates going forward as new data enters into pictures, I strongly believe that with an individual trader's overall well-defined market context, it can prove to be an excellent entry strategy because it's based on sound market principles. This book is worthwhile for me, at least, to confirm my market belief. The cycle phenomenons occurring in range volatility and pattern shift in open and high are enough of valid reason to invest your time in this book. In the end, I picked up a few ideas worth adding to my trading repertoire. | ||
Mining the miners i dont personalluy have anything for, nor anything against, larry and the countless other individuals and companies that produce an amazing amount of trading books, tools, programs, lectures and so forth. in fact, i myself wrote the book "beginners guide to computer assisted trading", which amazon sold for several years. the truth of the matter is.... those who cannot do, teach... meaning that around 90% of the stuff you are being offered is by people who were, in reality, not successful in, or never even actually did what they are claiming. just think logically, if YOU had a great way to beat the markets, would you waste time telling others how to do it? of course not! i personally stopped trading several years ago as i realized that technical analisys and simple to moderatly complex trading models no longer work. however, i do contract work for one of the worlds most successful private hedge funds and i can tell you that yes, if you have a big bankroll and at least 1/2 dozen rocket scientists you may find a way to beat the market for a while. but markets can always change (ususally quickly) in a way that can turn a good system into a dud. final food for thought, never mentioned in the financial press: the longer you stay in the markets, the higher your risk of ruin.... | ||
be carefull I was happy and making money slowly and steadily until i read this book. after reading is my account dropped from +50% for the year to +22% so far. his statistics are way over fitted. i realized that once i tested his data. the thing that i never understood is that why do these people keep publishing books if they are making millions. i know the answer now. they are not making millions trading , they are making it selling the book. maybe you can figure a way to make money with his stuff, but i couldn't. best of luck | ||