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 | | Hidden Collective Factors in Speculative Trading: A Study in Analytical Economics by Bertrand M. Roehner ISBN-10: 9783540412946 ISBN-10: 3-540-41294-8 ISBN-13: 9783540412946 ISBN-13: 978-3-540-41294-6 Hardcover 2001-03-01 Springer Find Lowest Price |
Editorials | ||
Product Description Besides analyzing stock markets, the book considers a wide range of speculative markets for various items such as real estate, commodities , postage-stamps, antiquarian books. In particular, it highlights the following regularities:(i) During a speculative episode, the price of expensive items increases more than the price of less expensive items. This is referred to as price multiplier effect.(ii) Price peaks for stocks and most commodities on average follow a well-defined pattern that we call the sharp peak - flat through pattern; in contrast real estate price peaks follow a flat peak pattern.(iii) The stocks whose prices experience the strongest increase during a bull market, better resist during the subsequent bear market, an effect referred to as the resilience pattern. Such regularities pave the way for a mathematical theory of speculation. Being mainly empirical, the book is easy to read and does not require technical prerequisites in finance, economics or mathematics. | ||
Reviews | ||
A prediction about the NASDAQ and other great stories Published in January 2001 this book contains (p. 176) a prediction about the course of the NASDAQ that up to now (i.e. 27 October 2002) is fairly well matched by the actual fall of the NASDAQ Composite Index over the period 2000-2002. Strangely enough, that prediction is not based on a sophisticated stochastic model, but rather on the observation of previous stock price peaks such as the one in Paris in 1882, the crash in Paris in early 1929, the crash in New York in late 1929 and several others. You may think that such an approach based on the analysis of recurrent events after all is not different from what chartists are doing. There is however a big difference. Here the approach works because it compares events which are brought about by similar phenomena. An example may help to better understand that point. Obviously, it would be an hopeless task to base a forecast of tomorrow's weather on the weather observed on previous days. However, it does make sense in August to forecast the average temperature in New York City six months later for this prediction is based on a well-defined phenomenon, namely the rotation of the Earth around the Sun. Similarly, the author shows that behind stock price peaks there are indeed specific recurrent phenomena; note that these phenomena are not confined to the sole financial sphere but are deeply rooted in the society as a whole. The book is not only about stock markets but considers all kinds of speculative fever whether affecting stocks, real estate, postage stamps, collector books, sugar, silver or diamonds. The section about real estate markets is of particular interest at the present moment. It shows that real estate price peaks ressemble stock price peaks in the sense that they are almost symmetrical with respect to the maximum, but they are smoother and the shift from the up- to the down-going phase is gradual instead of being sudden and abrupt as was the case for the NASDAQ. At the end of the book the author provides several useful data sets such as real estate prices in Britain and Paris, price of individual NYSE stocks during the crash of 1929 and so on. There is an insightful story on almost every page of this book. Highly recommended. | ||